https://dspace.mnau.edu.ua/jspui/handle/123456789/25008 2026-06-13T22:03:19Z https://dspace.mnau.edu.ua/jspui/handle/123456789/26136 Назва: Scenario modeling of grain production potential in conditions of military risk: The case of Ukraine Автори: Zavadska, Yu.; Iatsenko, O.; Fiore, M.; Yatsenko, O.; Христенко, Ольга Андріївна; Khristenko, Olga Короткий огляд (реферат): This paper examines the transformation of Ukraine’s grain sector under the conditions of the full-scale war and its implications for global food security. Using annual data from 2000 to 2023, we forecast grain production potential for 2025–2026 carrying out ARIMA models (a non-seasonal specification within the SARIMA family). To support interpretation under heightened uncertainty, the results are discussed through three military-risk scenarios -low, medium, and high—that differ in the severity of constraints on agricultural operations and export logistics. The study finds that even under the high-risk scenario, Ukraine retains the capacity to supply over 5% of global grain exports. We argue that the key determinants of sector resilience include technological modernization, institutional support, and logistical adaptation. Additionally, an integrated scenario matrix is developed to link strategic priorities, implementation levers, and financing sources for grain-sector modernization. Four vectors for strengthening long-term resilience are identified: economic, technological, institutional, and European integration. The findings suggest that a coordinated, multi-vector strategy can help offset wartime losses and support Ukraine’s integration into the European market with higher value added and greater resistance to external shocks. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://dspace.mnau.edu.ua/jspui/handle/123456789/26046 Назва: Emergency Household Water Treatment for Conflict-Induced Supply Disruption: A Case Study of Multi-Contaminant Raw Water in Mykolaiv, Ukraine Автори: Калініченко, Антоніна; Kalinichenko, Antonina; Ushchapivska, Tetiana; Honcharenko, Iryna; Гончаренко, Ірина Василівна; Hovorukha, Vira; Tashyrev, Oleksandr; Sporek, Monika; Patyka, Volodymyr Короткий огляд (реферат): Damage to urban water supply infrastructure can rapidly compromise access to safe water and force households to rely on alternative sources of uncertain quality. This study presents a case-based assessment of water quality and emergency household-level treatment options in Mykolaiv, Ukraine, following conflict-induced disruption of the centralized water supply system. Water samples collected from selected groundwater and distribution-network points were analyzed for physicochemical, organoleptic, and microbiological indicators, including total dissolved solids, hardness, sulfates, chlorides, iron, permanganate oxidizability, total microbial count, and E. coli. The results showed elevated mineralization, increased sulfate and chloride concentrations, high hardness, organic load indicators, and episodic microbiological contamination in several samples. A low-cost four-stage household treatment procedure combining chemical oxidation, thermal treatment, sorption, and short-term preservation was evaluated as a preliminary emergency approach. The procedure improved odor, taste, hardness, iron content, permanganate oxidizability, and microbiological safety; however, it did not fully reduce total dissolved solids, sulfates, or chlorides to drinking-water standards. Therefore, the treated water should be considered non-potable and suitable mainly for limited domestic and hygienic uses unless additional desalination or blending is applied. The study highlights both the potential and the limitations of simple household-level interventions under emergency water supply disruption and emphasizes the need for decentralized treatment support, monitoring, and long-term infrastructure recovery. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z