Concept of express monitoring of the state’s financial security

Abstract

The article addresses the important issue of the necessity to develop a concept of express monitoring of the state of financial security of Ukraine in the conditions of instability. The article proposes a methodology for express monitoring of the financial security of the state, which allows for quick analysis of the state of financial security, identifying problematic components of ensuring the financial security of the state through periods of research and identifying specific threats and reserves. The purpose of this is to further apply this knowledge in the process of strengthening the condition of financial security. The presented concept is based on the fundamental concepts of a polynomial algorithm for extrapolating the parameters of stochastic systems and the developed polynomial power correlation-regression model for express monitoring and forecasting the state of financial security of Ukraine. The concept contains a mathematically proven list of quantitative indicators of the condition of the state's financial security, selected in the process of decomposition of the category "financial security". These indicators directly form the basis and possibility of assessing the satisfaction of financial security and financial requirements of the state and its financial and economic development. It is characterized by the signaling ability of the level of threats to the financial security of the state, availability of statistical data and suitability for mathematical and other types of analysis, coverage of changes in a phenomenon or process over time, unambiguous interpretation, and high sensitivity to changes in the economic situation.