Scenario modeling of grain production potential in conditions of military risk: The case of Ukraine

Abstract

This paper examines the transformation of Ukraine’s grain sector under the conditions of the full-scale war and its implications for global food security. Using annual data from 2000 to 2023, we forecast grain production potential for 2025–2026 carrying out ARIMA models (a non-seasonal specification within the SARIMA family). To support interpretation under heightened uncertainty, the results are discussed through three military-risk scenarios -low, medium, and high—that differ in the severity of constraints on agricultural operations and export logistics. The study finds that even under the high-risk scenario, Ukraine retains the capacity to supply over 5% of global grain exports. We argue that the key determinants of sector resilience include technological modernization, institutional support, and logistical adaptation. Additionally, an integrated scenario matrix is developed to link strategic priorities, implementation levers, and financing sources for grain-sector modernization. Four vectors for strengthening long-term resilience are identified: economic, technological, institutional, and European integration. The findings suggest that a coordinated, multi-vector strategy can help offset wartime losses and support Ukraine’s integration into the European market with higher value added and greater resistance to external shocks.