The Balance and Optimization Model of Coal Supply in the Flow Representation of Domestic Production and Imports: The Ukrainian Case Study

Abstract

The successful supply of an economy with coal fuel, for a country that carries out its large-scale extraction and import, is a complex production and logistics problem. Violations of the usual supply scheme in conditions of crises in the energy markets, international conflicts, etc., lead to the problem of simultaneous restructuring of the entire supply scheme. This requires changes in the directions and capacities of domestic production and imports. In this article, the above problem is solved by the economic and mathematical model of production type. The developed model includes subsystems of domestic production and import supply. The results of modeling economy supply with thermal coal for different values of demand are given. The model was used to determine the amounts of coal production for Ukraine with the structure of the coal industry of 2021 and under the condition of anthracite consumers’ transformation to the high volatile coal. Simulations have shown that eliminating the use of anthracite requires the modernization of existing coal mines. Under those conditions, the import of high volatile coal will amount to 3.751 million tons in 2030 and 11.8 million tons in 2035. The amounts of coking coal imports will be 5.46 million tons, 5.151 million tons, and 7.377 million tons in 2025, 2030, and 2035, respectively.