Податкові новації в умовах воєнного стану: законодавчі зміни та підходи до управління податковими ризиками

Abstract

У ході дослідження проаналізовано податкові зміни у 2025 році. Визначено, що найбільші зміни у новому році торкнулися фізичних осіб-підприємців, оскільки для цієї категорії платників податків було запроваджено нові ставки податків та обов’язкових платежів, змінено терміни подання до контролюючих органів податковими агентами податкового розрахунку сум доходу, нарахованого (сплаченого) на користь платників податків – фізичних осіб, і сум утриманого з них податку. Досліджено зміни в оподаткуванні фінансових установ, резидентів Дія Сіті та інших суб’єктів господарювання. Також, вивчено особливості впровадження системи управління податковими ризиками (комплаєнс-ризиками) в Державній податковій службі України. Розглянуто види податкових ризиків, контроль за дотриманням яких покладено на податкові органи, під час реалізації експериментального проєкту. Досліджено основні типи заходів впливу на податкові ризики, які будуть застосовуватися ДПС у ході реалізації проєкту.

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Introduction. In the context of martial law, Ukraine is facing unprecedented economic and security challenges that require quick decisions and effective actions. One of the most important tools for meeting modern challenges has become the global transformation of state tax policy, which includes not only updating the legislative framework, but also adapting the tax system to new economic realities.

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to analyze the tax changes in 2025 and to study the peculiarities of the implementation of a tax risk management system (compliance risk management) in the State Tax Service of Ukraine.

Results. The study analyzes the tax changes in 2025. It was determined that the most significant changes in the new year will affect individual entrepreneurs, since new tax rates and obligatory payments for this category of taxpayers have been introduced, and changes have been made in the deadlines for tax agents to submit to the control authorities a tax calculation of the amounts of income accrued (paid) in favor of individual taxpayers and the amounts of tax withheld from them. Changes in the taxation of financial institutions, residents of Diia City and other business entities are investigated. The peculiarities of the implementation of the tax risk management system (compliance risks) in the State Tax Service of Ukraine are also studied. The types of tax risks to be monitored by the tax authorities during the implementation of the pilot project are investigated. The main types of measures to influence the tax risks, which will be applied by the State Tax Service during the implementation of the project, are considered.

Conclusions. The changes in the tax code implemented by the government have several key objectives: to increase state budget revenues, to ensure the financing of defense needs in connection with the current security challenges, and to combat the shadow economy, which is causing significant damage to the country’s economic development. However, these changes are accompanied by serious challenges for various groups in society. Individuals, businesses, and entire sectors of the economy face additional financial burdens that may lead to a decrease in their solvency, reduced investment, and slower economic growth. It is important to keep in mind that tax increases, which are often the main instrument of such changes, can have the opposite effect. Excessive tax pressure on companies and individuals can lead to an increase in tax evasion and the expansion of the informal economy. Ukraine has launched a pilot project aimed at implementing and improving the tax risk management system, including compliance risks, within the State Tax Service. This pilot project aims to increase the efficiency of the tax authorities by identifying, analyzing and minimizing potential risks associated with tax administration. The implementation of such a system will optimize control processes, reduce the possibility of taxpayer violations, and ensure a more transparent and fair tax policy. In addition, it will contribute to the creation of a favorable business environment, in particular by reducing the administrative burden and improving the interaction between tax authorities and business entities. In the long run, this could be an important step towards modernizing the Ukrainian tax system and bringing it in line with international standards.