Forecasting the dynamics of food security indicators in Ukraine during the wartime period of 2025-2026

Abstract

This article focuses on forecasting key food security indicators for Ukraine in 2025-2026 under conditions of wartime uncertainty. The aim of the study was to develop adaptive forecasting models that made it possible to assess the impact of wartime shocks and to determine possible trajectories for the recovery of the food system in the medium term. The methodology was based on the combined application of three classical time series models – linear trend, exponential smoothing, and the autoregressive integrated moving average model. For each indicator, three alternative forecasting models were constructed based on annual data up to 2022, and their accuracy was evaluated using the criteria of mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error, and the AIC information criterion. Given the absence of official statistics for 2022-2026, the baseline forecasts were adjusted according to a “partial recovery” scenario, which took into account a short-term decline (2022) and gradual stabilisation of indicators in 2023-2026. The results obtained indicated that in 2025-2026 the food system of Ukraine demonstrated signs of stabilisation; however, a full return to the pre-war trajectory did not occur. In particular, the daily energy value of the diet amounted to 2,596 kcal in 2025 and increased to 2,650 kcal in 2026, approaching the 2021 level. The adequacy index of consumption for most key products in 2025-2026 fluctuated within the range of 1.00-1.04, indicating the restoration of a rational level of consumption. The volume of state grain reserves increased to 1,253 thousand tonnes in 2025 and to 1,282 thousand tonnes in 2026, ensuring the recovery of the reserve adequacy indicator to 27-29%. The share of household expenditure on food gradually decreased to 48% in 2025 and to 46% in 2026. Import dependence in 2025-2026 amounted to 38-39% for fruit and berries, 40-42% for fish, and 45-46% for oil, whereas for bread products, potatoes, and eggs it did not exceed 2-11%, confirming the preservation of a high level of domestic self-sufficiency in basic food products