Prospects for restoring the economic potential of Ukraine in the post-war period

Abstract

Since February 24, after the beginning of the full-scale military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, the country’s economy has suffered significant losses. According to preliminary estimates by world experts, direct losses from the war are estimated at trillions of US dollars. As a result of the full-scale war in Ukraine, the volume of production of goods and services continues to decrease, as does the GDP. The inflation rate is expected to increase. Experts estimate the Business Expectations Index of enterprises at 72.6 %, before the start of full-scale military aggression in February 2022, this Index was 108.2 %. The destruction of the material and technical base, the reduction of the amount of intellectual capital due to migration flows of forcibly displaced persons, and the decrease in indicators of business and investment activity led to a significant drop in the main financial and economic indicators. In accordance with the definition of the current problems of economic development, the purpose of the article was determined, which consists of the development of practical mechanisms and methodological approaches to finding ways to restore the country’s economic potential as a basic task of post-war reconstruction. In accordance with the set goal, the object of research in the article is the system of formation and development of economic potential at the national level. The article analyzes theoretical approaches to the definition of the concept of economic potential, its functions, and factors of formation, which was carried out on the back of the use of methods of literature review, comparative analysis, and epistemological methods of cognition. The use of these methods made it possible to make a factor analysis of the world’s leading experience of post-war economic reconstruction. Although, it is worth noting that the scale of destruction and economic decline in Ukraine cannot be compared with the latest military conflicts in the world. As a result of the analysis, the factors were determined and the analysis results were predicted by using the methods of economic and mathematical modeling, and the algorithm for monitoring the processes of restoring the economic potential after the war was broken down. HIGHLIGHTS m The article analyzes theoretical approaches to the definition of the concept of economic potential, its functions, and factors of formation, which was carried out on the back of the use of methods of literature review, comparative analysis, and epistemological methods of cognition. m As a result of the analysis, the factors were determined and the analysis results were predicted by using the methods of economic and mathematical modeling, and the algorithm for monitoring the processes of restoring the economic potential after the war was broken down.