Administrative Decision-Making Under Conditions of Uncertainty

Abstract

У статті актуалізуються питання щодо функціонування підприємств в умовах ризику та невизначеності. Проведено стислий аналіз кризової ситуації, в якій опинилася наша країна та світ, порівняно її із іншими схожими ситуаціями та окреслено основні наслідки цього стану. Піднімаються питання щодо проблем ідентифікації та своєчасної оцінки рівня невизначеності, на якому опинилася компанія, оскільки правильне його визначення дозволить прийняти ефективні рішення для подальшого розвитку. Досліджено поняття невизначеності, аналізуються причини її виникнення. Окреслено та уточнено основні рівні невизначеності та їх ознаки, що має визначати особливості прийняття рішень на окремих її етапах в сучасних динамічних умовах. Проведено аналіз особливостей прийняття управлінських рішень в кризових умовах. Запропоновано напрями поведінки компанії та прийняття рішень на різних рівнях невизначеності.

Enterprises of Ukraine today are at a new stage of development, which is determined both by pandemic events and changes of a political, financial and global nature, which significantly complicates the management decisionmaking. It is clear that making a management decision is an important stage in the company's activity. Usually, a decision is made as one of many alternatives that are mutually exclusive. It is believed that the decision that allows to obtain the maximum profit is rational. However, today, this is not quite the case. The effective functioning of the economic system as a whole and its individual subjects is determined by a certain level of uncertainty. It is impossible to thoroughly study its behavior without considering this level. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to study the concepts of uncertainty, clarify the levels of uncertainty and determine the features of management decision-making at certain stages of uncertainty in modern dynamic conditions. Results. Management decision-making in conditions of uncertainty is a process that results in the selection of an alternative based on the complex interaction of analysis, forecasting, optimization, economic justification, etc., which occurs in conditions of complete or partial lack of information. The article updates issues related to the functioning of enterprises in conditions of risk and uncertainty. A brief analysis of the crisis situation in which our country and the world found itself was conducted, it was compared with other similar situations, and the main consequences of this situation were outlined. Questions are raised regarding the problems of identification and timely assessment of the level of uncertainty at which the company found itself, since its correct definition will allow effective decisions to be made for further development. The concept of uncertainty is studied, the reasons for its occurrence are analyzed. The main levels of uncertainty and their signs, which determine the peculiarities of decision-making at its individual stages in modern dynamic conditions, are outlined and clarified. An analysis of the features of management decision-making in crisis conditions was carried out. Directions of company behavior and decision-making at different levels of uncertainty are proposed. Conclusions. Underestimating the uncertainty factor leads to choosing a strategy that will not allow the company to protect itself from challenges and threats. After conducting the analysis, we note the dependence of the risk degree on the level of uncertainty. To help in choosing an alternative, it is advisable to use a modern mathematical apparatus. The effectiveness of management decision-making depends on the correct definition of the level and type of uncertainty.