Methodical Approach to Forecasting the Intensification of Innovative Development of Regions Using the Mathcad Program

Abstract

The authors have improved the methodical approach to assessing and forecasting the intensification of innovative development of regions, which contains a justification for the selection of statistical indicators of innovative development of regions, which are checked for compliance with the grouping by correlation analysis. The use of correlation analysis using Mathcad software makes it possible to eliminate autocorrelation relationships between selected assessment indicators of innovative development of regions. Confirmation of the weight of the grouping of evaluation indicators provides calculations of impact factors and determination of the most influential indicators on the integrated index of innovative development of regions using Mathcad software. The influence of the most influential indicators is also taken into account when forecasting the integrated index on the basis of estimated indicators using the Bartlett method. Predictive values and calculations of the integrated index of innovative development can be used in the practice of local and regional authorities to develop effective measures to enhance the intensification of innovative development of regions, taking into account the most influential factors for a particular region. The proposed methodological approach to forecasting innovative development was tested on the example of Polish regions, all calculations were performed using Mathcad software. For a more thorough analysis, three different voivodeships of Poland were selected, which belong to the voivodeships with high, medium and low levels of innovative development, have different and most influential indicators on the value of the integrated index. Such voivodeships include Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Pomeranian and Swiętokrzyskie. When forecasting with the use of Mathcad software, which makes it possible to eliminate errors in calculations, an increase in the average value of the integrated index of innovation development was obtained.