Computer's analysis method and reliability assessment of fault-tolerance operation of information systems

Abstract

In this paper there was obtained an calculation method of the assess-ment of the probability of fail-safe operation of information systems in the fu-ture instants of time. The method is based on the algorithm for modeling a pos-teriori nonlinear random sequence of change of values of the controlled parame-ters which is imposed a limitation of belonging to a certain range of possible values. The probability of fail-safe operation is defined as the ratio of the num-ber of realizations that fell in the allowable range to the total number of them, formed as a result of the numerical experiment. The realization of an a posterio-ri random sequence is an additive mixture of optimal from the point of view of mean-square nonlinear estimate of the future value of the parameter analyzed and of the value of a random variable, which may not be predicted due to the stochastic nature of the parameters. The model of a posteriori random sequence is based on the Pugachev's canonical expansion. The calculation method offered does not impose any significant constraints on the class of random sequences analyzed (linearity, stationarity, Markov behavior, monotoneness, etc.).