Predicting development based on a model of reflexive connections

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to develop an approach to quality forecasting of industrial enterprises. This article intends to understand how to take into account in predicting relationship, behavior and interaction of economic agents that affect the efficiency of the enterprise.

The result of the work is a reflexive approach to forecasting the development of an industrial enterprise, which focuses on prediction considering the complex interaction of economic agents in industrial activities as subjects of reflection with appropriate ranks. The approach based on the proposed model, which taking into account the reflective relationships between the industrial enterprise system and the components of the external environment, in which the industrial enterprise and other economic agents (or groups of economic agents) are considered as systems and trajectories. Depending on the trajectories of the components of the environment can be predicted development of industrial enterprises and management measures developed for correction. As components of the external environment, the trajectories of which must be taken into account when reflexively forecasting the development of an industrial enterprise are offered: the market of raw materials; groups of competitors; consumer groups; supplier groups; financial market; labor market. The model of taking into account the reflective connections between the system of the industrial enterprise and the components of the external environment is implemented in the PowerSim simulation package.