The impact of the war on foreign trade in Ukrainian agricultural products with the EU

Abstract

Under modern conditions, studying the impact of the war on foreign economic operations is essential for understanding current challenges, adapting the agrarian sector to new realities and developing effective strategies to ensure the country's food security. In addition, the establishment of trade relations with EU plays a key role in ensuring the sustainable development of the industry and the integration of Ukraine into the global economy. The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of the war on the foreign trade of Ukrainian agricultural products and to determine the strategic guidelines for the development of trade relations with the EU. The article reveals the general state and changes in the dynamics of export-import operations of agricultural products under martial law. Based on the calculated forecast of the value of exported and imported products for the period until 2030, it is projected that there will be general economic growth and expansion of Ukraineʼs foreign economic activity, and the balance will remain positive, which is evidence of the excess of exports over imports and indicates an increase in the competitiveness of national goods on the international market. Strategic directions for the development of trade relations between Ukraine and the EU and the prospects for the import of agricultural products are considered, the volumes of which will largely depend on the domestic production and trade policy of Ukraine, which is influenced by factors of indirect action of the external environment. Keywords: export, import, agricultural products, trade, impact of war.