Становлення і розвиток сучасного агропродовольчого ринку в Україні

Abstract

У статті досліджено еволюцію агропродовольчого ринку України в умовах воєнного стану та повоєнної адаптації. Визначено місце продовольчого ринку в системі національного ринку сільськогосподарської продукції, проаналізовано механізми ціноутворення та конкуренції. Наведено ретроспективний аналіз ключових показників за 2023-2025 рр., оцінено рівень споживання базових продовольчих ресурсів, експортний потенціал агросектору та розроблено прогноз агропродовольчого ринку України до 2030 року./The food market is strategic for Ukraine’s economic security, directly affecting public health, social stability, and national independence. The full-scale war has fundamentally transformed operating conditions: infrastructure damage, disrupted logistics, forced migration, and reduced purchasing power have created unprecedented challenges. At the same time, martial law has stimulated adaptation mechanisms, retail automation, and reorientation of export flows from sea routes to rail and river alternatives. This paper addresses the research gap in comprehensive academic analysis covering 2023 2025 with evidence based forecasts to 2030, considering wartime risks and European integration commitments.

Purpose. To provide a comprehensive analysis of Ukraine’s modern food market formation and functioning during 2023 2025 and to develop a scientifically grounded forecast until 2030. Specific objectives include substantiating the market’s systemic importance; examining supply, pricing, competition, and regulation; assessing consumption levels for basic products; characterizing agricultural export potential; and developing projected indicators based on strategic government documents.

Results. Ukraine’s food retail sector demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2024: retail turnover reached UAH 770.7 billion (USD 19.2 billion), a 17% year on year increase; 310 new stores opened (41.5% in Western Ukraine); by early 2025, approximately 5,100 food stores operate nationwide. Price formation is primarily cost driven, with logistics adding 15 25% to product costs. Ukraine maintains absolute self sufficiency in grains (>500%), sunflower oil (>1,000%), eggs (100%), potatoes (98 100%), sugar (>150%), and meat (95 100%). Global export shares: 36% of world sunflower oil, 38% sunflower meal, 13% corn, 7% wheat. Grain and oilseed exports reached USD 12.9 billion in 2024 (growth potential +3.9 billion). Forecasts to 2030: grocery retail maintains upward trend; snacks market may reach USD 4.7 billion; meat consumption could rise to 65 70 kg per capita; Ukraine could become a significant blueberry exporter.

Conclusions. Ukraine’s modern food market has demonstrated extraordinary resilience. Despite population decline and infrastructure destruction, retail networks expanded and turnover recovered. Ukraine retains its status as the “breadbasket of the world” (36 38% of global sunflower oil market). Under an optimistic scenario, grain and oilseed exports could increase by 30 40% by 2030. Key risks include prolonged war, deepening demographic crisis, export blockades, and insufficient recovery funding.