Uncertainty as a Determinant of Risk in Security-Oriented Management of Ukrainian Commercial Banks

Abstract

Today, commercial banks in Ukraine operate in an unstable financial environment and geopolitical challenges, which necessitate adapting traditional risk management models and integrating new methods for assessing uncertainty that consider the stochastic nature of economic processes and the psychological and behavioral characteristics of market participants. This research aims to identify and substantiate the features of the impact of uncertainty on risk management processes in the system of security-oriented functioning of commercial banks and to develop methodical approaches to increasing their stability and efficiency in the modern financial environment. The research methodology is represented by decision-making theory methods, including expert and analytical assessments, fuzzy logic methods, multi-criteria analysis, and construction of decision matrices considering various event scenarios. The article develops an Integrated Bank Security Decision Index (IBSDI), which allows quantitatively assessing the effectiveness of management decisions in banks, taking into account ten main types of uncertainty: geopolitical, regulatory, cybersecurity, stochastic, information, uncertainty of operating conditions, antagonistic, strategic goals, reputational, and other types of uncertainty. The index considers the weight of each type of uncertainty for corporate security, threats’ intensity, and banking decisions’ stability. The study results show that integrating economic, regulatory, information, and security components into a single assessment system increases the adaptability of banks, minimizes risks, and strengthens stability in crisis and uncertain conditions. The proposed method provides the basis for expert assessment, scenario analysis, and strategic planning, consistent with the international standards Basel III/IV and the practices of leading world banks. To ensure the reliability and practical effectiveness of the model, it is necessary to regularly update its parameters and check the consistency of expert assessments.