Модель впливу соціально-економічних факторів на обсяг кредитного портфелю банку

Abstract

У статі досліджено основні соціально-економічні фактори, які впливають на обсяг наданих кредитів, що утворюють кредитний портфель банку. На їх основі розроблено модель регресії, в якій дані фактори взяті в якості незалежних змінних, а обсяг наданих кредитів – залежна змінна. У рамках вищевказаної регресії розраховуються її основні оціночні показники: коефіцієнт детермінації, коефіцієнт кореляції, середня помилка апроксимації і інші значущі показники, розрахунки та перевірки яких наведено в даній роботі. На основі п’яти факторного рівняння регресії виявлено основні показники, які мають найбільш вагомий вплив на зміну обсягів кредитування та описано вплив кожного показника.

The article considers the essence of the concept of "deposit activity" from the point of view of representatives of the system approach. It is substantiated that the bank's deposit activity is carried out on the basis of a clearly formed deposit policy, the state of deposit activity of the banking system of Ukraine during 2016-2020 is analyzed. It is proved that banks in Ukraine attract resources from deposit sources at a high level, but for further development of deposit activities and increasing this source in the resource base, it is advisable to improve existing and implement new tools, methods and models. The concept of optimization of bank deposit activity in the changing economic environment is developed, which includes the purpose, tasks, principles of deposit activity of banks and means of their achievement, namely methods, interest rate policy, organizational and functional model of deposit activity. Introduction. The article is devoted to the study of the essence of the concept of "deposit activity" from the point of view of representatives of the system approach and analysis of the state of deposit activity of the banking system of Ukraine during 2016-2020. Based on the analysis, it was possible to draw conclusions about the factors that influenced the state of deposit activity during the study period. The concept of optimization of the mechanism of deposit activity of banks in the conditions of the changing economic environment is developed. Purpose. The aim of the article is to develop conceptual approaches to the organization and optimization of the bank's deposit activities in a changing economic environment. Result. The article analyzes the current state of deposit activity of banks in terms of currencies and depositors. The conceptual approach to optimization of deposit activity of bank in the conditions of the changing economic environment is offered. It is proved that banks in Ukraine attract resources from deposit sources at a high level, but for further development of deposit activities and increasing this source in the resource base, it is advisable to improve existing and implement new tools, methods and models. Deposits are the main way of accumulating the bank's resources and the main component of the deposit policy, which in turn is the basis of effective and efficient deposit activity of the bank as a whole. Conclusions. The conducted research allowed to formulate certain conclusions that reflect the solution of the main tasks. Scientific results have been obtained at the theoretical and practical levels.