Стратегічні напрями розвитку банківської діяльності України

Abstract

Значення банків зростає в умовах становлення і розвитку ринкових відносин. Успішний розвиток і надійність банківської системи в умовах ринкової економіки багато у чому залежить від результатів статистичного аналізу в банках, що дозволяє виявляти їхні слабкі та сильні сторони, визначати конкретні шляхи розв’язання проблем. Мета статті полягає у економіко-статистичному аналізі сучасного стану банківської системи України, розробленні теоретико-методологічних засад і практичних рекомендацій щодо статистичного аналізу діяльності банків. Було визначено сутність, теоретичні передумови і методологічні засади статистичного аналізу діяльності банків; проаналізовано сучасні підходи до статистичного аналізу банківської діяльності; розроблені концептуальні засади комплексного аналізу банків; сформовано систему показників діяльності банків на підставі відкритої та доступної статистичної інформації; здійснено довгострокові прогнози розвитку банківської системи України.

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Introduction. The article is devoted to the analysis of banking activity of Ukraine and tendencies of development, search of perspective directions of development of branch. It has been proved that the successful development and reliability of the banking system in a market economy largely depends on the results of statistical analysis in banks, which allows to identify their weaknesses and strengths, to identify specific ways to solve problems. Purpose. The purpose of the article is economic and statistical analysis of the current state of the banking system of Ukraine, development of theoretical and methodological principles and practical recommendations for statistical analysis of banks, identifying key factors and trends and finding promising areas for further development of banking. Results. The essence, theoretical preconditions and methodological bases of the statistical analysis of activity of banks are considered; modern approaches to statistical analysis of banking activity are analyzed; conceptual bases of the complex analysis of banks are developed; a system of indicators of banks' activity was formed on the basis of open and accessible statistical information; long-term forecasts of the development of the banking system of Ukraine were made. The analysis of the main indicators of the activity of banking institutions of Ukraine confirmed the presence of crisis phenomena in banking activity. It is proved that the efficiency of the banking system of Ukraine depends on a number of such factors: the level of development of the financial market; the current level of confidence of economic entities in the central bank; macroeconomic situation both inside the country and abroad; political factors; level of monopolization and shadowing of the economy. The low probability coefficient of the forecast model indicates a significant influence of political factors on the state of banking in Ukraine. The main problems of the industry are: huge outflows of funds from deposit bank accounts and reduction of bank resources, including by reducing revenue from all types of services; accumulation of significant volumes of problem loans in the structure of the loan portfolio due to the growth of debt on loans to individuals, businesses and non-bank financial institutions; increase in costs of banks and increase in unprofitable activities of banking institutions in general; exacerbation of the problem of insufficient level of capitalization of banks, exacerbation of the situation regarding compliance with the statutory and regulatory capital of banks; declining confidence in the banking system; political and economic instability in Ukraine, etc. Conclusions. Improving the state of the industry is possible through: improving the investment climate in the country as a whole; determination of priorities of economic development; improving the welfare of the population and strengthening corporate finance; increasing the level of monetization of the economy; increasing the resource potential of the banking system; ensuring the long-term and availability of credit resources; increasing the transparency of commercial banks, etc.